Geopolitical Risk Assessment

Understanding the increasing number of non-business risks that organisations have to face is becoming a serious challenge for many transnational corporations. You do not have to be a significant global enterprise to be at risk from geopolitical events: tour operators, airlines, banks, educational establishments, manufacturers and even relatively small SMEs are potentially at risk from global events and restrictions via international sanctions.

Anticipating what may happen within the EU, the Levant, Sahel, Persian Gulf or South China Sea territories is becoming an essential part of knowledge management and strategic planning for modern executives. Failure to fully comprehend the extent of a danger can be disastrous for companies as demonstrated by the Islamic militant attacks in Algeria (2013) against Western energy interests. Multinationals and Westerns are now exposed to a far more disaggregated threat, making attempts to tackle and mitigate the risks much harder.

Western economic and cultural interests are more exposed than at any time before. As a result, whether you run an exotic wedding location experience in Kenya or a large scale oil operation in Northern Africa, your employees are potentially at risk from kidnapping, attacks, civil unrest and general indiscriminate acts of terrorism.

But it is not just the extreme attacks and issues that cause problems. Changes to government policy, anti-government demonstrations and small, seemingly isolated incidents, can all quickly snowball out of control resulting in national or local chaos, disrupting logistics, transport and air travel.

Understanding the motivations of non-state actors helps in securing a better picture of the geostrategic environment in which organisations operate.

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